Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin&#39;s Path to $200K, Gold&#39;s Role, and Why &#39;Hated&#39; Ethereum Will Soar Again

Arthur Hayes is an influential personality from the formative years of Bitcoin. He co-established the offshore BitMEX exchange in 2014 prior to facing issues with U.S. regulatory authorities. Hayes has since admitted guilt for not establishing adequate anti-money laundering measures and agreed to be placed under probation along with being fined. However, at the beginning of this year, he was granted a complete pardon by President Donald Trump. Currently, his efforts are directed towards management duties. Maelstrom However, the fund managed by his family doesn’t overshadow Hayes' significant influence within the realm of digital assets. Freelancer Anna Tutova met with him at the margins of Token2049 in Dubai, where he discussed prevailing market trends. He also made a forecast suggesting that Bitcoin might reach $200,000 soon and potentially climb to as high as $1 million by 2028.

During the Q&A, Hayes provided insights into the market for Ethereum and alternative coins, expressing his astonishment at having allocated 20%. gold . He likewise issued stern warnings regarding the escalating U.S. national debt. (The conversation has been condensed for length and lucidity).

Anna: You've characterized the recent lending activities by the U.S. Treasury as a form of trickery. What’s your reasoning behind this description?

Hayes stated that the Treasury has been reducing its "checking account" (known as the Treasury General Account, or TGA) and utilizing underfunded mechanisms called "Extraordinary Measures" to circumvent borrowing restrictions. This action caused the TGA balance to decrease from $750 billion to $450 billion within this quarter. He highlights that this equates to $300 billion being expended without issuing additional debt, indicating that the actual borrowed amount is significantly higher than what official records show.

It’s perplexing," he states, "since we're currently experiencing a phase with the debt ceiling. This means the U.S. government isn’t able to take on additional net debt. They have several methods at their disposal to continue spending without surpassing this limit. From January through March of 2025, the Treasury borrowed 22% more compared to what they did during the equivalent months from the prior year. Hence, the deficit has increased.

What impact does this have on Bitcoin?

I think the U.S. government ends up borrowing far more funds than commonly perceived, which means Treasury Secretary Bessent will likely need to issue additional debt. Consequently, he must devise methods for those people to gain maximum leverage via the banking sector, implying an increase in global circulation of dollars since the federal government is expending greater sums.

Here’s a quick summary: A buyback can be good for market liquidity, and I think this explains why Bitcoin likely hit its low point on April 9th. As the government keeps increasing its borrowing, and with measures taken to ensure funding remains accessible, Bitcoin should keep rising significantly from here.

At what price level should Bitcoin ascend to initiate an altcoin season? Also, what do you think would trigger this shift into the altcoin season?

I believe Bitcoin should surpass the $110K mark with trading volumes rising to between $150K-$200K. This could occur during summertime or at the beginning of the third quarter, followed by a shift towards different altcoins.

Do you believe this might result in just a mild boost for altcoins, or do you anticipate something more along the lines of what happened in 2021 with an intense altcoin season and a massive upward cycle?

“ I don’t believe everything will increase 100-fold across the board in 2021. There’ll likely be a fresh storyline where traders attempt to push prices into uncharted territory, yet older cryptocurrency projects languishing in your holdings without much movement may not budge for good reasons. Many of these tokens might possess substantial Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV), limited circulation, zero customer base, and no income—just some exchange listings behind them after experiencing a 95% decline. It’s hard to envision why they would perform better during the upcoming market cycle.

What kind of return do you aim for in this market, what price objectives do you set, and what typical returns are you looking for?

They must surpass the comeback of Bitcoin. Therefore, if we decide to invest our capital, it should yield better returns than Bitcoin. ”

What are your hopes regarding Trump's policies?

I believe they will take actions beneficial for cryptocurrency. This does not imply that your specific project will increase in worth. It also doesn’t guarantee that these actions will align with your timeframe.

I believe that individuals have extremely high hopes and consider cryptocurrency as the top priority for Trump to concentrate on. However, since Trump is a politician with numerous issues demanding his attention, I feel that patience is necessary from everyone."

Moreover, amid the current market volatility, we observed that gold prices significantly increased. Did you allocate funds to gold or do you focus exclusively on cryptocurrencies?

I’ve been holding onto gold for quite some time now, which means I have actual bullion stored in a secure vault. Additionally, my portfolio includes numerous shares in gold-mining companies that I believe remain underpriced considering the substantial increase in gold prices. My belief is that we’ll see even more growth in gold values since central banks continue to purchase this precious metal.

I continue to hold the view that the U.S. will significantly increase the value of their gold reserves to reduce the purchasing power of the dollar relative to gold. Therefore, I anticipate that gold might reach anywhere from $10,000 to $20,000 as this upward trend concludes.

What portion of your investment portfolio is allocated to gold?

"Probably like 20%."

That's quite substantial! A significant amount of discussion revolves around Ethereum versus Solana. Which one do you think will outperform the other?

I believe Ethereum holds a stronger potential for performance improvement primarily due to how widely it is disliked; people often assume Ethereum accomplishes little, citing their perceived lack of success in various areas. Despite this skepticism, Ethereum maintains the highest total value locked, boasts the largest developer community, and remains the most secure proof-of-stake network. Admittedly, its price hasn’t performed impressively since 2020.

Clearly, Solana performed exceptionally well going from $7 to $172. However, if I plan to invest additional funds into the market, I believe Ethereum might surpass Solana during the upcoming 18-to-24-month bullish phase.

You made a prediction before That Bitcoin will trade at $1 million. When do you think that will occur?

I believe that by the conclusion of Trump's presidency, which ends in late 2028, Bitcoin could reach approximately one million dollars.

Anna: Could you share your predictions for cryptocurrency trends this year?

Arthur: I believe that Bitcoin’s market share keeps increasing. In the upcoming period, Bitcoin might approach the $200,000 mark. Following that, we’ll likely experience an altcoin rally where some exciting developments will occur. By year-end, my prediction for Bitcoin stands at approximately $250,000.

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